Wednesday, September 21, 2011

USDJPY finishing decade long impulse wave?

USDJPY appears to be very close to completing its impulse lower. I believe that we may be forming a double bottom with the low from the Japan Earthquake. Usually I would expect further movement lower as wave 5 seems too small compared to Wave 1 Blue and 3 Blue of Wave 4 Green. However, according to FXJunction.com more than double the number of traders are shorting the pair vs long the pair and this has been true for a several weeks now. The masses (especially novice traders like FXJunction tracks) tend to lose money trading forex. I prefer to bet against their consensus opinions. However there still a possibility that we may see a massive spike lower before prices head back up, similar to the Japan Earthquake spike, so caution is definitely warranted.

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