The S&P 500 appears set for a large rally which could potentially take us to new highs above 1220. Looking back at the price action since the August 9th low, it looks extremely corrective. Therefore I do not believe we are in the midst of a 3rd of 3rd Wave just yet. The selling does not appear forceful enough. Currently, Wave C Green (the end of Wave B Red) is not confirming the new RSI lows below Wave A Green on a 2 hour time frame. However, if we break the August 9th lows, fresh selling pressure would be injected giving the 3rd of a 3rd look. There is a way to count price action in this manner; however, wave 1 and 4 overlap requiring it to be labeled as a leading diagonal. I only label in this manner as a last resort, but it is a possibility. I believe we will have final week or so of a strong rally to knock out the weak shorts, followed by a severe decline around October 10th. |
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