AUDUSD Critical Juncture

AUDUSD remains at a decision point. It can either breakdown to new lows or begin a final impulse higher. This secondary support must not be breached significantly in order for this count to remain valid. Either way this breaks, I expect to see large moves.

AUDUSD to rally past 1.085

AUDUSD appears set to rally higher in a final impulse in order to complete the larger degree correction from .9386. I would expect this to complete as a double top between 1.095 and 1.105 in order to create the relationships Wave 5 Green = 61.8% of Wave 3 Green and Wave C Red = Wave A Red, respectively. A more significant break below the trendline drawn (which connects the origins of Wave A Red and Wave C Red) would make this wave count extremely unlikely.

AUDUSD impulsive decline on 1 minute charts

This displays a five wave decline in the AUDUSD, which has a very high correlation to the S&P 500. I believe that this is the very forefront of a much larger move lower in virtually every asset over the coming months. The most notable exceptions will likely be the US dollar and treasuries in a flight to liquidity.

AUDUSD Detailed look at Wave 4 Red

The AUDUSD appears to be completing a Wave 4 Red. Waves A and C Green are almost at equality. Additionally, Wave 2 Red (shown in prior post) and Wave 4 Red have reached equality. The previous post has more info about where Wave 5 Red and more importantly, the next move, should lead.

AUDUSD long opportunity to set up amazing short entry

It seems we may be ready for one last thrust higher in the AUDUSD above the recent 1.084 barrier, but below the all time high of 1.108. This should present an incredible risk reward opportunity to enter into short positions. The resulting impulse should end around a conservative estimate of 2,500 pips lower.

AUDUSD appears toppy

AUDUSD appears to be completing an ending diagonal to finish a massive Wave 2 Red counter-trend rally. While Wave C Green does not have a good proportion to wave A Green, I see no other valid wave count at this point.

AUDUSD Hunt Volatility Funnel

The AUDUSD has set up a large Hunt Volatility Funnel, which if broken should produce a move above High 4 or below Low 3 will produce a 250 pip move from that point in the direction of the break. My preference is that prices will break lower as it has had trouble recently sustaining momentum above its 89 period moving average, but either direction is possible.

AUDUSD 5 Waves Down 3 Waves up Complete

The AUDUSD appears to have completed Green Waves 1 and 2 with Wave 2 being an ending diagonal. There is still the possibility that what I have labeled as the end of wave 2 is only the end of a large Wave A, but I like the look of the count as it stands.

AUDUSD impulsive decline unfolding



AUDUSD appears to have completed an impulsive wave to the downside after reversing at the fibonacci resistance zone (1.0210-1.0230) explained in my last post. I believe this to be a very minor wave of a massive wave 3 decline.

AUDUSD Correction nearly complete

AUDUSD appears to be nearing completion. I hesitate to say that it is yet complete as I cannot distinguish all the sub-waves within the fast Wave 5 Blue of Wave C Green. Therefore, I think it is likely that prices still have a little momentum left to touch the Fibonacci resistance zone near where Wave C = 1.618 * A level at 1.0210 and where the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.1080 is located at 1.0230. What should follow should be a spectacular decline to new lows as a third of a third wave begins.

AUDUSD A Wave nearly complete

AUDUSD appears ready to decline after advancing 5 waves and nearing significant resistance at its 144 hour moving average.

AUDUSD rally before Wave 3 of 3 of 3 decline!

AUDUSD appears set to rally once more, perhaps close to parity before a large scale decline unfolds in a Wave 3 of 3 of 3. This coming decline is the move I am hoping to catch, so make sure you are not caught off gaurd (ie. use tight stops) if you decide to play this small Wave 2 bounce.

AUDUSD potential for bounce?

With current prices at the trendline which has supported AUDUSD higher during its rally from the 2008 lows and just above horizontal resistance from the top of Wave A Green, I believe there is significant potential for a correction higher in the AUDUSD, allowing better shorting opportunities. However, if prices take out the support at .9700, I would expect a much sharper move to the downside to unfold.

Short AUDUSD

With the Australian dollar rebounding to the 61.8% retracement of it's impulsive decline from 1.10, a short position near current levels appears warranted. This level is given additional importance it coincides with the uptrend channel support which has now become resistance.