Tuesday, November 13, 2012

US Equity Market Rolling Over?

It appears as though the S&P 500 may have finally completed the first of many (yet to come) impulses lower. The trend line shown is the last bastion of support which is why I believe that we will get a modest rally from here which should not take out the September 13th highs. Although this impulse lower appears as a leading diagonal, which it probably is, when viewed from the DJIA it appears as a normal impulse wave.
This chart offers a very simplistic view of why I believe the top is in. As far as I know, I am the only one who has been tracking this long term channel forming in the DJIA. The price action in the S&P 500 has not reached the upper boundary of the channel; however, aside from traders I believe the Dow Jones is more widely followed and therefore has more relevance.