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After what seems like forever going up, the market has created a very clear impulse lower followed by a three wave rally. Assuming the recent top sticks this creates a (very lopsided) head and shoulders pattern with March 7th as the left shoulder. At a minimum we are heading to the sub 1800's, but I believe that is an extremely conservative estimate.
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The NASDAQ 100 chart shows the Head and Shoulders pattern far more textbook than does the S&P. The dates are somewhat different but they appear to be aligning at the right shoulder for the time being.
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While this chart is a couple of weeks old, it display how on a logarithmic basis the recent all time highs were bumping into the lower end of this channel. These lines have been defining many of the significant market tops and bottoms over the last 30+ years. The bottom line is I believe we are currently at the very beginning of a new bear market.
*On a personal note, the reason I have let this page fall into a state of disuse is due to my current job as a Platoon Leader in the US Army. I cannot trade with the same focus as I could when I was in college; my primary duty is to my Soldiers and country. The demands of trading weigh on my mind too heavily to be dual focused on trading and training Soldiers. They deserve my all. I will continue to update when I feel there is something significant in the works, but still infrequently until I complete my service.
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