EURUSD - Heading higher?

The EURUSD's current set-up either a fairly medium term bullish or imminently long term bearish. The line in the sand between these two outcomes is the low of Wave B Blue. I still believe that the Euro has further to run toward the upside as it tends to top after the stock market at significant turns, but it could certainly head in either direction. If it does breakdown, it would project a measured move to at least 1.25. Either case offers significant trading potential.

EURUSD Trending Higher?

It appears that the EURUSD has completed five waves lower to complete a leading diagonal. This is the last leg of that diagonal. As long as prices do not significantly violate the trendline which has now become support, the EURUSD should shortly continue higher in a multi-month rally.

EURUSD to begin Wave 2 higher?

Today's thrust lower in the EURUSD appears to have completed Wave 1 Green lower. It is currently facing the resistance of the 61.8% retracement of the B Wave as well as the center-line of it's channel. This may be a decent stopping point for the decline. Ideally, I would like to see an end of day rally to create a tail on the today's bar. The coming rally may match Wave A Green's peak in order to set up a massive Head and Shoulders pattern which will be broken in a Wave 3 Green lower.

Euro heading higher?

EURUSD appears to be completing its B wave Correction lower with a thrust under its channel support. What I have labeled as Wave 4 Black may actually be a part of Wave 3 Black with one more thrust to finish the decline. However, given the proximity to the origin of Wave A, I feel the risk/reward is justified as it is currently labeled. It feels almost wrong to be bullish on the Euro given all the negative news lately, but recently commercials have been buying Euros at record levels according to the COT data. This usually corresponds to significant bottoms in the EURUSD.

EURUSD final rally above 1.4000

The EURUSD appears to be catching a bid near the area of the previous 4th of a lesser degree. This leads me to believe that we will see a final Wave C Green which should make highs above the top of Wave A Green. I favor this outcome as long as the 61.8% retracement of the move from Oct 3rd to Oct 26th (around 1.3565) holds as support. However, it is possible that 1.425 is the end of the correction. If that is the case than we still have 5 waves complete, and can expect a corrective rally. In either case I expect higher short term prices.

EURUSD Correction Complete

The EURUSD appears to have completed a simple zig-zag corrective wave and should be headed for fresh lows.

EURUSD Still appears corrective

EURUSD appears to have only completed an A Wave and should find support at the decending trendline just below current prices.

Update on EURUSD Long

With the EURUSD recent breakthrough of trendline resistance, there is very little in the way of technical resistance until around 1.3800 (last week's high). However, I do not expect prices to remain at an elevated level for long.

EURUSD Suprise Bounce

The current EURUSD wave count allows for the possibility of a jump up to 1.3900. I would wait for slightly lower levels to initiate a long positions from near the end of Wave B in order to reduce risk. This should create a head and shoulders pattern with 3 and 5.

EURUSD heading to new lows!

EURUSD appears to have completed it's 4th Wave correction and should be heading to new lows in a fifth wave. Notice how Wave C Blue ended roughly .618 further than Wave A Blue, as well as just above it's trendline. This is typical of a C Wave.

*Wave C must be an ending diagonal to account for the overlap between Wave 1 Black and Wave 4 Black.

EURUSD likely to decline in Wave 4

EURUSD appears set to decline to the rising support of its current channel as it is likely in an ending diagonal.

EURUSD Approaching Major Trendline Support



With the Euro approaching the bottom of its trendline since the beginning of the year, there is a real possibility of a major 3rd of a 3rd breakout to the downside for the EURUSD.