Thursday, January 12, 2012

EURNZD - Possibly concluding 3 year impluse

The EURNZD appears to be terminating an impulse which began three years ago nearly 10,000 pips higher. The spike on this weeks bar could potentially be the end, however the subdivisions of the current Wave 5 Blue are not readily apparent. A 15 minute view displays an obvious impulse higher. It is possible this merely the beginning of a Wave 4 Black of this Wave 5 Blue. In either case the short term momentum is higher. Therefore, I will attempt to enter into long positions at 1.6100 and 1.6035, with a stop loss at 1.5920.


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NZDUSD Wave 2 higher potentially complete

The New Zealand Dollar vs. the US$ appears to have completed a three wave correction higher off its November lows. This is likely a completed Wave 2 Green higher or perhaps only a three-wave correction in a Wave A Blue higher. In either case however, prices should move lower in the short term. Currently, Wave A Blue and Wave C Blue are roughly equal, and prices are just barely above channel resistance. As the subdivisions of Wave C Blue are labeled, Wave 2 Green cannot terminate above .8045.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

EURUSD Trending Higher?

It appears that the EURUSD has completed five waves lower to complete a leading diagonal. This is the last leg of that diagonal. As long as prices do not significantly violate the trendline which has now become support, the EURUSD should shortly continue higher in a multi-month rally.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

EURCHF low risk bullish setup

I think it's worth a shot at these levels. This should break to the upside and target around 1.27 given the measured move from a triangle break.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

EURUSD to begin Wave 2 higher?

Today's thrust lower in the EURUSD appears to have completed Wave 1 Green lower. It is currently facing the resistance of the 61.8% retracement of the B Wave as well as the center-line of it's channel. This may be a decent stopping point for the decline. Ideally, I would like to see an end of day rally to create a tail on the today's bar. The coming rally may match Wave A Green's peak in order to set up a massive Head and Shoulders pattern which will be broken in a Wave 3 Green lower.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Euro heading higher?

EURUSD appears to be completing its B wave Correction lower with a thrust under its channel support. What I have labeled as Wave 4 Black may actually be a part of Wave 3 Black with one more thrust to finish the decline. However, given the proximity to the origin of Wave A, I feel the risk/reward is justified as it is currently labeled. It feels almost wrong to be bullish on the Euro given all the negative news lately, but recently commercials have been buying Euros at record levels according to the COT data. This usually corresponds to significant bottoms in the EURUSD.









Wednesday, December 7, 2011

USDHUF set for wave 5 decline?

USDHUF appears to have completed a triangle to finish Wave 4 Green and should soon break to new lows in a Wave 5 Green. The 55 hour moving average has been fairly reliable resistance throughout this impulse lower. Therefore if price moves significantly higher than this moving average it is likely Wave 4 Green is still unfolding in a more complex correction.

This is a pair that I have only recently begun trading, but I feel that it exhibits more defined wave patterns than most highly liquid currency pairs. Perhaps, this is a result of a more localized populace trading this pair than the more liquid crosses, allowing their social mood (and therefore price) to fluctuate in unison.