Monday, April 9, 2012

EURUSD - Heading higher?

The EURUSD's current set-up either a fairly medium term bullish or imminently long term bearish. The line in the sand between these two outcomes is the low of Wave B Blue. I still believe that the Euro has further to run toward the upside as it tends to top after the stock market at significant turns, but it could certainly head in either direction. If it does breakdown, it would project a measured move to at least 1.25. Either case offers significant trading potential.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

AUDUSD Critical Juncture

AUDUSD remains at a decision point. It can either breakdown to new lows or begin a final impulse higher. This secondary support must not be breached significantly in order for this count to remain valid. Either way this breaks, I expect to see large moves.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

GBPJPY D Wave Complete

There appears to be at least one three wave move lower in the GBPJPY before higher levels are seen. Usually a third test of a significant level of resistance gives way. However in this case, as Wave C Green did not register new lows, it is likely that the current thrust will not make new highs yet. With the invalidation point nearby, a short from current levels seems justified.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

AUDUSD to rally past 1.085

AUDUSD appears set to rally higher in a final impulse in order to complete the larger degree correction from .9386. I would expect this to complete as a double top between 1.095 and 1.105 in order to create the relationships Wave 5 Green = 61.8% of Wave 3 Green and Wave C Red = Wave A Red, respectively. A more significant break below the trendline drawn (which connects the origins of Wave A Red and Wave C Red) would make this wave count extremely unlikely.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

GBPJPY decline ahead?

GBPJPY appears to have completed either a Wave 3 Green impulse or a Wave C Green correction. In either case, the short term view appears to indicate lower prices. If prices breach the Wave 1/A high, it is likely that new lows will be made eventually.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

GBPJPY Head and Shoulders topping pattern

The British Pound versus the Yen has created a significant Head and shoulders patter over the last few trading days and appears to be set to begin a fresh impulse to new lows. As the recent decline has penetrated the top of Wave A Green, it is unlikely that we are experiencing a Wave 4 Green Pullback. However, where we are in the larger time frame is still unclear to me.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

AUDUSD impulsive decline on 1 minute charts

This displays a five wave decline in the AUDUSD, which has a very high correlation to the S&P 500. I believe that this is the very forefront of a much larger move lower in virtually every asset over the coming months. The most notable exceptions will likely be the US dollar and treasuries in a flight to liquidity.