Wednesday, November 9, 2011

S&P 500 SHTF line

The S&P 500 has survived a test of 1225 which was already major support, but is now where the recent trendline resides. If and when this level of support is taken out, prepare for an extremely sharp long-term move lower. This should coincide with a sustained USD breakout.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

EURCAD to breakdown?

EURCAD appears to be nesting in a series of 1-2, 1-2. This setup indicates that we should see sudden acceleration lower once the key level of support at 1.3780 is broken. The 13 period moving average appears to be have topped and is heading lower. Therefore, I expect a breakdown leading to ~ 1.2300 within a few weeks! 

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

EURUSD final rally above 1.4000

The EURUSD appears to be catching a bid near the area of the previous 4th of a lesser degree. This leads me to believe that we will see a final Wave C Green which should make highs above the top of Wave A Green. I favor this outcome as long as the 61.8% retracement of the move from Oct 3rd to Oct 26th (around 1.3565) holds as support. However, it is possible that 1.425 is the end of the correction. If that is the case than we still have 5 waves complete, and can expect a corrective rally. In either case I expect higher short term prices.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

AUDUSD appears toppy

AUDUSD appears to be completing an ending diagonal to finish a massive Wave 2 Red counter-trend rally. While Wave C Green does not have a good proportion to wave A Green, I see no other valid wave count at this point.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

EURAUD Wave 2 Decline appears complete

EURAUD appears to have completed a three wave decline from the highs and stopped close to a 61.8% retracement of the advance. Prices appear to be back testing the former downtrend resistance line. From here, I expect a strong rise to new highs in a Green Wave 3.

AUDUSD Hunt Volatility Funnel

The AUDUSD has set up a large Hunt Volatility Funnel, which if broken should produce a move above High 4 or below Low 3 will produce a 250 pip move from that point in the direction of the break. My preference is that prices will break lower as it has had trouble recently sustaining momentum above its 89 period moving average, but either direction is possible.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

AUDUSD 5 Waves Down 3 Waves up Complete

The AUDUSD appears to have completed Green Waves 1 and 2 with Wave 2 being an ending diagonal. There is still the possibility that what I have labeled as the end of wave 2 is only the end of a large Wave A, but I like the look of the count as it stands.